November 25, 2021

Profiles in Credit – Catching Up With Callum Thomas

Featuring: Callum Thomas, Geoff Castle

In this episode Geoff Castle, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, picks up his conversation with Callum Thomas, founder and head of research of Topdown Charts.

Subtitle: Insights from the world’s southern-most investment research firm.

In this episode Geoff Castle, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, picks up his conversation with Callum Thomas, founder and head of research of Topdown Charts. They revisit Callum’s predictions from March 2021 to see what went right and what came out as a surprise. They also talk in depth about inflation, the impact of COVID on a variety of sectors, the sudden shift in the Chinese real estate market and finally Callum provides some insight into where he thinks the market is headed in 2022. Callum also provides his outlook and thoughts for a post pandemic world. The podcast ends with a data series that Callum recommends listeners follow.

Key Takeaways

[02:00]	Callum revisits what he said on the Profiles in Credit podcast from March 2021 and talks about what surprised him the most.
[04:00]	The effect of COVID on emerging markets and the change in investor sentiment.
[05:30]	Geoff asks Callum about the most important leading indicators for inflation.
[08:20]	With oil prices at over $80, Geoff asks Callum if he thinks there has been enough investment in oil and gas capacity to neutralize any further increases.
[14:00]	Are oil price increases showing similar trends now as they did in the 70’s and early 80’s or is this an entirely different ball game? Callum provides a detailed response.
[17:00]	Where does Callum see longer term rates heading through 2022 and are they in the same direction as inflation?
[18:50]	Geoff asks Callum if the market is more inflation-sensitive than it used to be in the 70’s.
[24:00]	Callum elaborates on the catalysts that would cause him to shift to being more bearish in terms of credit.
[30:00]	Geoff asks Callum for a reading on the potential impact from the current Chinese property market crisis and Asian high yield.
[36:20]	Where does Callum see lending standards in 2022 and what effect would easing or tightening lending standards have?
[37:40]	With the pandemic having varying levels of impact, what regions does Callum think will fair relatively strong in 2022 and why.
[41:00]	Geoff asks Callum for three winners and three losers for the coming year.
[46:00]	In a twist, Geoff asks Callum for his recommendation on a data series, vs a book.