September 7, 2023

Profiles in Credit – Winnie Cisar – Part Two

Featuring: Geoff Castle, Winnie Cisar

In this episode, Geoff Castle hosts Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy for CreditSights for a follow up to their May 2022 chat.

Subtitle: “A rolling loan gathers no loss”

Geoff and Winnie jump right into discussing how to navigate credit markets in the current climate. There’s a lot to cover as they touch on the latest remarks from the Fed, public vs private debt, dealer inventories, maturity walls, what the rest of 2023 might hold and more, closing with Winnie’s book recommendation.

Key Takeaways

01:15	Geoff jumps in by asking Winnie about navigating credit markets and recent enthusiasm for high grade bonds.
03:30	What’s the Fed’s next move?
07:20	Is the United States still a fireproof house Credit wise?
11:30	A different kind of slow down? Geoff and Winnie talk about recessions.
15:09	The differences between the private and public debt markets in 2023? The comparisons to the syndicated loan market of 2013-2021, and the potential perfect storms and hard landings – “there’s a lot to go through”.
19:45	Why are high-yield credit spreads below average here? What’s artificial and what’s has had some real legs. Winnie looks at CCCs, energy, sector alignment, quality, technicals and other factors.
23:25	Waiting for “some sort of signal that the Fed is going to be cutting rates” to see a change in the volume of T-bill, government bond and short-term deposit purchases.
25:12	“Dealer inventories are definitely an interesting topic”, Winnie looks at both seasonal and market sentiment as key factors here.
27:48	“…staring down some maturity walls that are growing in the bond markets.”
30:35	Geoff asks Winnie for some key themes she thinks credit investors should be attuned to going into the backend of 2023.
34:17	Is Winnie seeing credit opportunities in any particular sectors or countries?
37:01	Winnie’s book pick? The Actor's Life: A Survival Guide by Jenna Fischer who played Pam on The Office, about succeeding in a really complicated and challenging industry...