Profiles in Credit – The Annual Sit Down – Geoff Castle and Callum Thomas
December 14, 2023

Profiles in Credit – The Annual Sit Down – Geoff Castle and Callum Thomas

In this episode Geoff Castle, Lead Portfolio Manager of Pender’s Fixed Income portfolios, hosts Callum Thomas, founder and head of research of Topdown Charts for their annual podcast.

Building puzzles. 

Geoff and Callum reflect on 2023 and review which of their December 2022 calls were right, and which were early. They look ahead to 2024 and really dive into a wide range of topics, both fixed income as well as small-cap equities, commodities and UAPs (formerly UFOs). Is the US government hiding something? Many would regard this as a “must-listen”.

Key Takeaways

[01:20]Callum discusses what he looks for in finding “those investing setups” that he shares with followers.
[04:09]What Geoff and Callum were thinking this time last year…and what happened in 2023. “Effervescent equities”?
[07:02]What factors drive Callum’s bullish stance on 10-year treasury yields?
[13:14]“There’s being wrong and there’s being early”.
[15:17]Reflecting on inflation, recession, emerging weakness, stimulus and monetary policy.
[19:27]US small-cap equities – a winner in a lower treasury yield curve environment?
[24:37]Callum’s perspective on emerging markets’ performance.
[30:02]Bullish on commodities – a special situation?
[33:34]Callum’s cheapest (‘hot’) commodity pick?
[36:06]Credits – after “a market that did pretty well in 2023” how does 2024 look to Callum?
[42:58]Callum’s most unpopular opinion!
[44:43]The close – with Callum’s reading recommendation.

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